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Will Share Buybacks Aid Lockheed (LMT) in Q4 Earnings?

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Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT - Free Report) is slated to release its Q4 and full-year 2022 results on Jan 24, before the opening bell.

The company delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.62%. Higher sales volume from the majority of the company’s segments, along with incremental share buybacks, must have boosted LMT’s Q4 performance.

Let's see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.

Aeronautics & Space to Post Impressive Sales

The Aeronautics segment, which primarily manufactures advanced, combat-proven jets and comprises almost 40% of the company’s top line, is likely to have delivered impressive performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

Increased volume from its classified programs, as well as higher F-35 deliveries, is likely to have boosted the Aeronautics segment’s performance in the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this unit’s Q4 revenues stands at $7,387 million, indicating a 3.6% rise from the prior-year reported figure.

The Space business segment is also projected to come up with an impressive performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter, buoyed by the continued ramp-up in the next-generation interceptor program.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for this unit’s Q4 revenues stands at $3,033 million, indicating a 3.8% rise from the prior-year reported figure.

Impact of MFC & RMS Performance

Lockheed Martin’s Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment provides critical missile defense support to the United States and foreign allies. Higher volume from tactical and strike missiles must have boosted this unit’s sales performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

However, lower sustainment revenues for special operations, following the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan might have had some adverse impact on the MFC unit’s Q4 performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MFC segment’s revenues is currently pegged at $3,177 million, implying a 1.3% decrease from the year-ago reported figure.

Solid production volume for helicopters must have boosted the Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS) segment’s Q4 performance.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the RMS segment’s Q4 revenues is currently pegged at $4,651 million, implying a 4.3% improvement from the year-ago reported figure.

Q4 Expectations

Considering the aforementioned developments, the sales improvement expected in the three major segments of Lockheed Martin may have benefited the company’s overall sales performance in the soon-to-be-reported quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s Q4 revenues stands at $18.25 billion, indicating a 2.9% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Such a solid sales performance, along with the company’s incremental planned buybacks, is likely to have boosted LMT’s Q4 earnings.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the defense giant’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at $7.41 per share, suggesting a rise of 2.4% from the prior-year reported number.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Lockheed this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here

Lockheed has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Below are three defense stocks that have the right combination for an earnings beat:

Spirit AeroSystems (SPR - Free Report) : It is expected to release its Q4 results soon. SPR has an Earnings ESP of +93.75% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SPR delivered a four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 73.24%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Spirit AeroSystem’s Q4 bottom line is pegged at a loss of 48 cents, which implies a solid improvement from a loss of 84 cents incurred in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Leidos Holdings (LDOS - Free Report) : It is scheduled to release its Q4 results on Feb 14. LDOS has an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #3.

LDOS delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 2.01%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Leidos’ Q4 earnings, pegged at $1.61, suggests an improvement of 3.2% from the fourth quarter of 2021.

Airbus Group (EADSY - Free Report) is expected to report its Q4 results soon. EADSY has an Earnings ESP of +6.25% and a Zacks Rank #2.

EADSY delivered a four-quarter average earnings surprise of 59.88%.The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EADSY’s Q4 earnings, pegged at 48 cents, implies a decline of 15.8% from the fourth-quarter of 2021.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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